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2004 Governor · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 758 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 47%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.02% · Republican 48.87%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.018 − 48.871 = 2.147
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (2.147) = -5.147
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.147| = 5.147

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25353, race ID 1371 (538 database).