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2004 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 383 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 26% · Republican 60%

R+34.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.56% · Republican 63.34%

R+26.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26 − 60 = -34.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.560 − 63.344 = -26.784
  3. Signed miss = -34.00 − (-26.784) = -7.217
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.217| = 7.217

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25353, race ID 3396 (538 database).