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2004 House · NH-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 346 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 57%

R+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.17% · Republican 58.26%

R+20.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 57 = -27.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.173 − 58.255 = -20.082
  3. Signed miss = -27.00 − (-20.082) = -6.918
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.918| = 6.918

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25353, race ID 3397 (538 database).