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2004 President · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 758 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.24% · Republican 48.87%

D+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.242 − 48.874 = 1.368
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (1.368) = 2.632
  4. Absolute miss = |2.632| = 2.632

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25353, race ID 785 (538 database).