2004 Senate · CO
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 44%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.30% · Republican 46.53%
D+4.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 44 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 51.303 − 46.533 = 4.770
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (4.770) = 3.230
- Absolute miss = |3.230| = 3.230
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25362, race ID 1619 (538 database).