2002 Governor · NH
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 53%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.21% · Republican 58.62%
R+20.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 53 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 38.214 − 58.618 = -20.404
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-20.404) = 5.404
- Absolute miss = |5.404| = 5.404
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25389, race ID 1402 (538 database).