2002 House · NH-1
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 51%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.48% · Republican 58.11%
R+19.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 51 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 38.482 − 58.108 = -19.626
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-19.626) = 8.626
- Absolute miss = |8.626| = 8.626
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25389, race ID 2959 (538 database).