2002 House · NH-2
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 58%
R+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.86% · Republican 56.81%
R+16.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 58 = -22.00
- Actual margin = 40.856 − 56.808 = -15.952
- Signed miss = -22.00 − (-15.952) = -6.049
- Absolute miss = |-6.049| = 6.049
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25389, race ID 2960 (538 database).