2002 Governor · NH
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 52%
R+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.21% · Republican 58.62%
R+20.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 52 = -16.00
- Actual margin = 38.214 − 58.618 = -20.404
- Signed miss = -16.00 − (-20.404) = 4.404
- Absolute miss = |4.404| = 4.404
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25390, race ID 1402 (538 database).