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2002 Senate · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 51%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.40% · Republican 50.82%

R+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 51 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.402 − 50.819 = -4.417
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-4.417) = -3.583
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.583| = 3.583

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25392, race ID 1669 (538 database).