2002 Senate · TX
Blum & Weprin Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 50%
R+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.33% · Republican 55.30%
R+12.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 50 = -9.00
- Actual margin = 43.326 − 55.300 = -11.974
- Signed miss = -9.00 − (-11.974) = 2.973
- Absolute miss = |2.973| = 2.973
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25421, race ID 1679 (538 database).