2002 Senate · TX
Blum & Weprin Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 47%
R+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.33% · Republican 55.30%
R+12.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 47 = -10.00
- Actual margin = 43.326 − 55.300 = -11.974
- Signed miss = -10.00 − (-11.974) = 1.973
- Absolute miss = |1.973| = 1.973
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25422, race ID 1679 (538 database).