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2002 Governor · CO

Ciruli Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-21 (15 days before the election) · 666 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 56%

R+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.65% · Republican 62.62%

R+29.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 56 = -28.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.652 − 62.621 = -28.969
  3. Signed miss = -28.00 − (-28.969) = 0.969
  4. Absolute miss = |0.969| = 0.969

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25433, race ID 1386 (538 database).