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2002 Senate · OR

DHM Research · fieldwork ended 2002-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 608 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 55%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.61% · Republican 56.21%

R+16.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 55 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.606 − 56.209 = -16.603
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-16.603) = -2.398
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.398| = 2.398

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25448, race ID 1674 (538 database).