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2002 Governor · MI

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 39%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.42% · Republican 47.40%

D+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 39 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.417 − 47.398 = 4.019
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (4.019) = 4.981
  4. Absolute miss = |4.981| = 4.981

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25451, race ID 1398 (538 database).