2002 Governor · TX
FM3 Research · fieldwork ended 2002-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 900 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 44%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.96% · Republican 57.81%
R+17.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 44 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 39.961 − 57.808 = -17.847
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-17.847) = 14.848
- Absolute miss = |14.848| = 14.848
The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25457, race ID 1413 (538 database).