2002 Senate · NJ
Fairleigh Dickinson University · fieldwork ended 2002-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 37%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.88% · Republican 43.95%
D+9.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 37 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 53.876 − 43.948 = 9.928
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (9.928) = 0.071
- Absolute miss = |0.071| = 0.071
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25461, race ID 1670 (538 database).