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2002 Senate · MO

Gallup · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 604 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.67% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.667 − 49.799 = -1.132
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-1.132) = -2.868
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.868| = 2.868

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25471, race ID 1666 (538 database).