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2002 Senate · MT

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 28%

D+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.73% · Republican 31.73%

D+31.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 28 = 31.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.735 − 31.730 = 31.005
  3. Signed miss = 31.00 − (31.005) = -0.005
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.005| = 0.005

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25525, race ID 1667 (538 database).