2002 House · MT-1
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 30% · Republican 58%
R+28.0
The certified result
Democrat 32.67% · Republican 64.62%
R+32.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 30 − 58 = -28.00
- Actual margin = 32.667 − 64.620 = -31.953
- Signed miss = -28.00 − (-31.953) = 3.953
- Absolute miss = |3.953| = 3.953
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25525, race ID 2952 (538 database).