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2002 Senate · NM

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 61%

R+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.96% · Republican 65.04%

R+30.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 61 = -33.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.957 − 65.043 = -30.086
  3. Signed miss = -33.00 − (-30.086) = -2.914
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.914| = 2.914

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25532, race ID 1671 (538 database).