2002 House · NM-2
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 47%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.72% · Republican 56.23%
R+12.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 43.717 − 56.225 = -12.508
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-12.508) = 7.508
- Absolute miss = |7.508| = 7.508
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25532, race ID 2975 (538 database).