2002 House · SD-1
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 805 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 47%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.61% · Republican 53.47%
R+7.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 45.606 − 53.468 = -7.862
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-7.862) = 2.862
- Absolute miss = |2.862| = 2.862
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25536, race ID 3075 (538 database).