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2002 Governor · TN

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 42%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.65% · Republican 47.59%

D+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.647 − 47.594 = 3.053
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (3.053) = -0.054
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.054| = 0.054

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25538, race ID 1412 (538 database).