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2002 Senate · TN

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 50%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.34% · Republican 54.28%

R+9.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 50 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.339 − 54.279 = -9.940
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-9.940) = -0.059
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.059| = 0.059

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25538, race ID 1678 (538 database).