2002 Governor · TN
Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 43%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.65% · Republican 47.59%
D+3.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 50.647 − 47.594 = 3.053
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (3.053) = 2.946
- Absolute miss = |2.946| = 2.946
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25547, race ID 1412 (538 database).