2002 Governor · MI
Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2002-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 38%
D+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.42% · Republican 47.40%
D+4.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 38 = 13.00
- Actual margin = 51.417 − 47.398 = 4.019
- Signed miss = 13.00 − (4.019) = 8.981
- Absolute miss = |8.981| = 8.981
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25552, race ID 1398 (538 database).