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2002 Governor · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2002-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 39%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.42% · Republican 47.40%

D+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 39 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.417 − 47.398 = 4.019
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (4.019) = 3.981
  4. Absolute miss = |3.981| = 3.981

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25553, race ID 1398 (538 database).