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2002 Senate · NM

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2002-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 905 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 65%

R+38.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.96% · Republican 65.04%

R+30.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 65 = -38.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.957 − 65.043 = -30.086
  3. Signed miss = -38.00 − (-30.086) = -7.914
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.914| = 7.914

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25572, race ID 1671 (538 database).