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2002 House · NM-1

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2002-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 312 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 50%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.66% · Republican 55.34%

R+10.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 50 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.658 − 55.342 = -10.684
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-10.684) = 4.684
  4. Absolute miss = |4.684| = 4.684

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25572, race ID 2974 (538 database).