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2002 Governor · MN

Minneapolis Star Tribune · fieldwork ended 2002-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 929 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 35%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.46% · Republican 44.37%

R+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 35 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.461 − 44.372 = -7.911
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-7.911) = 4.912
  4. Absolute miss = |4.912| = 4.912

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25617, race ID 1399 (538 database).