2002 Senate · MN
Minneapolis Star Tribune · fieldwork ended 2002-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 929 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 41%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.34% · Republican 49.53%
R+2.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 41 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 47.336 − 49.529 = -2.193
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-2.193) = 7.193
- Absolute miss = |7.193| = 7.193
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25617, race ID 1664 (538 database).