2002 Senate · MN
Minneapolis Star Tribune · fieldwork ended 2002-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 929 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 39%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.34% · Republican 49.53%
R+2.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 39 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 47.336 − 49.529 = -2.193
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (-2.193) = 10.193
- Absolute miss = |10.193| = 10.193
The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25618, race ID 1664 (538 database).