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2002 Governor · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2002-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 651 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 49%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.21% · Republican 58.62%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 49 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.214 − 58.618 = -20.404
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-20.404) = 8.404
  4. Absolute miss = |8.404| = 8.404

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25651, race ID 1402 (538 database).