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2002 House · NH-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2002-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 309 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 47%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.86% · Republican 56.81%

R+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 47 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.856 − 56.808 = -15.952
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-15.952) = 9.951
  4. Absolute miss = |9.951| = 9.951

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25651, race ID 2960 (538 database).