Skip to content

2002 Governor · AR

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 507 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 50%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.95% · Republican 53.01%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 50 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.947 − 53.008 = -6.061
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-6.061) = -2.939
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.939| = 2.939

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25660, race ID 1384 (538 database).