2002 Senate · AR
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 42%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.90% · Republican 46.10%
D+7.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 42 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 53.896 − 46.104 = 7.792
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (7.792) = 3.209
- Absolute miss = |3.209| = 3.209
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25661, race ID 1650 (538 database).