Skip to content

2002 Senate · CO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 43%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.77% · Republican 50.70%

R+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.769 − 50.696 = -4.927
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (-4.927) = 11.926
  4. Absolute miss = |11.926| = 11.926

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25666, race ID 1651 (538 database).