Skip to content

2002 Senate · GA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 44%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.90% · Republican 52.73%

R+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 44 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.896 − 52.734 = -6.838
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-6.838) = 5.838
  4. Absolute miss = |5.838| = 5.838

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25670, race ID 1653 (538 database).