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2002 Governor · MN

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 36%

even

The certified result

Democrat 36.46% · Republican 44.37%

R+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 36 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.461 − 44.372 = -7.911
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-7.911) = 7.912
  4. Absolute miss = |7.912| = 7.912

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25674, race ID 1399 (538 database).