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2002 Senate · SD

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.62% · Republican 49.47%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.624 − 49.466 = 0.158
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (0.158) = 3.842
  4. Absolute miss = |3.842| = 3.842

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25690, race ID 1677 (538 database).