2000 House · MI-8
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 44%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.74% · Republican 48.79%
R+0.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 48.740 − 48.794 = -0.054
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.054) = 1.054
- Absolute miss = |1.054| = 1.054
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25718, race ID 2482 (538 database).