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2000 President · FL

Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 2000-10-20 (18 days before the election) · 606 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 46%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.84% · Republican 48.85%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 46 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.838 − 48.847 = -0.009
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-0.009) = -4.991
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.991| = 4.991

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25743, race ID 815 (538 database).