2000 Senate · NY
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 516 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 46%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.19% · Republican 39.15%
D+12.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 51.187 − 39.148 = 12.039
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (12.039) = -8.038
- Absolute miss = |-8.038| = 8.038
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25761, race ID 1703 (538 database).