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2000 President · NY

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 516 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 36%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.64% · Republican 32.45%

D+24.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 36 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.639 − 32.450 = 24.189
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (24.189) = -10.189
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.189| = 10.189

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25761, race ID 840 (538 database).