2000 Governor · DE
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 36%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 59.24% · Republican 39.74%
D+19.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 36 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 59.244 − 39.745 = 19.499
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (19.499) = -7.499
- Absolute miss = |-7.499| = 7.499
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25768, race ID 1419 (538 database).