2000 House · MT-1
Montana State University Billings · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 403 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 44%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.28% · Republican 51.50%
R+5.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 44 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 46.276 − 51.500 = -5.224
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-5.224) = 3.224
- Absolute miss = |3.224| = 3.224
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25829, race ID 2513 (538 database).