2000 President · ME
Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 36%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.09% · Republican 43.97%
D+5.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 36 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 49.086 − 43.972 = 5.114
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (5.114) = 5.886
- Absolute miss = |5.886| = 5.886
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25884, race ID 827 (538 database).