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2000 Senate · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,179 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34.1% · Republican 63%

R+28.9

The certified result

Democrat 35.85% · Republican 59.91%

R+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34.1 − 63 = -28.90
  2. Actual margin = 35.854 − 59.915 = -24.061
  3. Signed miss = -28.90 − (-24.061) = -4.839
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.839| = 4.839

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25896, race ID 1705 (538 database).