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2000 Senate · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 608 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 59%

R+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.85% · Republican 59.91%

R+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 59 = -25.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.854 − 59.915 = -24.061
  3. Signed miss = -25.00 − (-24.061) = -0.939
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.939| = 0.939

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25897, race ID 1705 (538 database).